Carlos Lee: To Trade or Not to Trade

Josh Flickinger

As the playoff race heats up and the July 31 trade deadline nears, the Milwaukee Brewers have a very important decision to make. What will they do with their All-Star LF Carlos Lee?

Lee is in the final year of his contract, and has been a dependable run-producing stalwart in the Milwaukee lineup since he was acquired from the White Sox for Scott Podsednik before the 2005 season. He stands to garner a large payday following the season, as the market for sluggers like him appears to be around 4-5 years at around 12 million per season. He’s 30 years old, and below-average in left. As always with these types of decisions, a lot of factors will play into which way Brewers general manager Doug Melvin goes.

When you talk about a team like the Brewers, payroll has to be a primary concern. At this point, the Brewers have a $56 million dollar payroll. They have 34 million already committed for 2007, including $17 million for pitcher Ben Sheets and outfielder Geoff Jenkins alone. Add in sizable raises in arbitration for All-Star Chris Capuano and uber-utility man Billy Hall, and you are creeping up to 2006 levels already.

Brewers owner Mark Attanasio has already said he expects the payroll to increase for 2007, but it certainly doesn’t figure to approach the $65-70 million mark. Figure in Lee for 12 million, and you’re talking about 29 million, or a little less that half of the projected payroll, for three players.

The other factor is organizational depth. The Brewers are very high on Corey Hart, Lee’s potential replacement. Since being drafted in the 11^th round in 2000, all Hart has done is hit. He was an All-Star at each level, and garnered MVP honors in the AA Southern League in 2003. He hit .296 in the minors, showed good plate discipline, decent power, and good speed. He bounced around for a while in the field, playing some 3^rd base, moving across the diamond to first, before finally settling in the outfield. In limited playing time this season, Hart has hit .333 in 48 AB’s, and performed decently in CF and RF when given the chance.

The other thing to consider, of course, is what the Brewers could do with the money that would have been allocated to Lee. What does $12 million get you these days? Melvin could use that cash to get a premium starting pitcher, a few relievers, or some depth among the position players.

Attanasio and Melvin have both indicated that it would be foolish to trade Lee if the Brewers are still in the race come the end of July. By the looks of it, they certainly will be within five games or so of the Wild Card as the date looms. A trade would be a disaster in that case for credibility among long-suffering Brewers fans, who have seen this act before. Greg Vaughn, Gary Sheffield, Richie Sexson (that worked well) are just a few of the big-time players the Brewers have had to let go because they couldn’t pay them. While Lee will probably not be a Brewer next season, to trade him while within striking distance of their first playoff birth since 1982 is simply not an option.

If I were in Doug Melvin’s shoes, I would take the two compensation picks that Lee will garner them when he signs with another team this winter and let him walk. With this year’s free agent pool being very shallow, Lee very easily could be the subject of a bidding war between teams like the Yankees, Cubs and Angels, all of whom could afford him. The Brewers simply can’t compete with that.

While Lee has said he would love to come back to Milwaukee, he’s certainly not going to give the Crew any hometown discount, nor should he. I believe that Lee would probably be worth his cash for the first year or two of his deal, but also think that in 2008, you’d be sitting with a $12 million dollar, .260-23-80 albatross who is mostly embarrassing in LF. If you’re the Yanks, you deal with it. You could also stick him at DH, thereby cutting your dilemma in half. The Brewers simply won’t have that luxury, especially with the contracts of youngsters like Hall, Weeks, and Fielder getting larger by the season.

Letting Carlos Lee walk in free agency is not a sign of the Brewers giving up, or throwing in the towel. It’s the responsible fiscal decision. It’s then up to Doug Melvin to make good use of the resources available, and Corey Hart to take advantage of the opportunity allotted him. Those two things will go a long way in determining just how bright the future of the Brewers is.