Cubs-Brewers '07...An In-Depth Analysis

# 1 Starter...Ben Sheets v. Carlos Zambrano.

This has the potential to be a terrific matchup. Sheets is the true X-Factor for the Brewers in 2007. Although his win totals have never been eye-catching, true baseball fans are aware that wins and losses are perhaps the 3rd or 4th most telling stat when it comes to evaluation of a starting pitcher. And Sheets' peripheral stats are truly remarkable. Consider the following...

Over the last three years, two of those he spent battling nagging injuries, Sheets has compiled 521 strikeouts, while walking just 68 in 499.6 innings. That's a 7.6/1 ratio, amongst the best in baseball. Sheets compiled an ERA of 3.13 over that time frame, once again amongst the best in the game. Although Sheets has picked up the dreaded Prior-like "injury-prone" status, Sheets missed a total of 3 starts over his first four full seasons (throwing well over 200 innings in three of them), and still managed to pitch over 250 innings over the course of the last two seasons. And by all accounts, this spring is the healthiest Sheets has felt since 2002.

Sheets put up some amazing numbers last year, despite the nagging injuries that limited him to 17 starts. Jeff Sackman’s brilliant article on hardball times pointed this out that in 106 innings of work last year, he posted 11 walks, while striking out 106 batters. No other pitcher has EVER thrown 50 more innings in a season while striking out a batter per inning, and walking fewer than on per 9. Incredible stuff. If you want a taste of what Ben can do over the course of a full season, refer to 2004, his last fully healthy campaign: He had a stellar ERA of 2.70, struck out 264 batters in 237 innings, and walked just 32, an 8.3-1 K/BB ratio. If the Brewers can coax 200 innings out of Sheets' golden right arm, Milwaukee has a terrific chance at a breakout season.

Zambrano is no slouch himself. Like Sheets, he is a two-time All-Star. Also like Sheets, his best season came in 2004, when he posted an ERA of 2.75 and a WHIP (Walks and hit per innings pitched) of 1.2. Unlike Sheets, Zambrano's durability can't be questioned. He's pitched at least 200 innings (these days the barometer for a workhouse starter) for the last four consecutive years, and his bulldog manor on the mound has served him well for the most part. One thing that might be of concern to Z is that, while his K/9 ratio was a career high 8.8, his BB/9 ratio also marked his highest total since becoming a full-time starter in 2003 at 4.8. Basically, both of those numbers mean he throws a ton of pitches per start. It will be interesting to see if those numbers, combined with the ridiculous mis-use of the pitching staff that characterized the Dusty Baker Era in Chicago, has an effect on Z. Certainly, this is a guy that is a legitimate ace, and looks to have another big year in 2007.

# 2 Starter...Jeff Suppan v. Ted Lilly.

The Brewers are paying Suppan 42 million over 4 years to do what he's done the last eight years...pitch at least 188 innings, provide a better than league average ERA, be a mentor to younger pitchers, and be a stabilizing force. $10.5/year might sound like a steep price, especially for the Brewers, but it was the going rate for those types in the offseason, and Brewers brass felt strongly enough about the rest of the team to invest in Suppan. His remarkable durability and postseason experience (he was the MVP of the '06 NLCS) make him a pretty decent # 2 starter, but certainly his stuff won't blow anyone away. His numbers over the past three years, in almost every category, are basically the same. He is 32 years old, which is a concern with any pitcher. However, because he is not, nor has he ever been, a flamethrower, age issues shouldn't effect him all that much.

The Cubs, meanwhile, shelled out basically the same deal for Lilly (4 years, 40 million). Lilly is a year younger, has never pitched 200 innings, has pitched never won a post-season game, and has a career ERA of 4.60. On the plus side, he's a lefty, had a terrific year in 2004, and pitched in baseball's toughest division over the last three years. While it would be hard to argue that Lilly is worth the $10/year he got, he should provide decent dependability to the rotation.

# 3 Starter ...Chris Capuano v. Jason Marquis

Over the last two years, Capuano has proven to be a dependable starter that shows flashes of brilliance. An All-Star in 2006, the lefty has pitched 440 innings over the last two years, has one of the best pickoff moves in all of baseball, and has a combined ERA of just under 4 for the last two seasons. Cappy made huge strides last season in improving his K/BB ratio. While maintaining his strikeout rate (176 in '05, 174 in '06), Cappy allowed just 47 walks in '06, as compared to 91 in the year prior. He has started 69 games over the past two seasons, and was 7th in the National League in innings pitched in 2006. He finished 6th in the NL in BB/9, with 1.91.

Marquis was signed to a 3-year, 21 million dollar deal despite being so terrible for the Cardinals in 2006 that they left him off their playoff roster. Marquis finished 2006 with a an ERA of 6.02 and struck out just 96 while walking 75. The Cubs have to hope that Larry Rothschild can bring back the Marquis that pitched over 200 innings in both 2004 and 2005, while compiling an ERA of around 4.23. Not stellar numbers, but at least enough to take some pressure off the bullpen and give your team a chance to win the game. Marquis' whip last season was over 1.5.

# 4 Starter...Dave Bush v. Rich Hill

Bush is an interesting story for the Brewers. He went to Wake Forest as a catcher, and was later converted to a lights-out college closer. He was drafted by the Blue Jays in the 2nd round, and quickly rose through the ranks and made his MLB debut in 2004 with Toronto. He had a decent rookie season in 2005, starting 25 games in the tough AL East, and compiled an ERA of 4.49. He was traded to the Brewers as part of the Lyle Overbay deal, and was very dependable in 2006. He pitched 210 innings, and his peripheral numbers were much better than his 4.41 ERA would indicate, possibly meaning he simply pitched in a lot of bad luck. His WHIP of 1.13 was good for 4th best in the National League, and he walked just 1.63 batters per 9 innings, good for 4th in the NL as well. He led the entire National League in K/BB ratio, tying Roy Oswalt with 4.37-1 ratio (Had Sheets pitched enough innings, he would've won in a landslide). For these reasons, I believe that Bush is a strong candidate for a breakout year in 2007, much like the one that Capuano experienced in 2005.

Hill is a pretty decent prospect for the Cubs that has always done well in the minors, but had a horrific big league stint in 2005. Last season appeared to be much the same as after 10 outings, he was carrying an ugly 6.44 ERA. However, Hill put his big, sweeping curveball to work for him down the stretch and ended up with an ERA of 4.17. It appeared as though he had things figured out, so 2007 will be a crucial year for Hill to make the leap. Who is the real Rich Hill? The guy that struggled through his first 20 outings or so, or the one that had terrific success in his last 7 outings in 2007?

#5 Starter...Claudio Vargas v. Wade Miller

Vargas, acquired in the Doug Davis-Johnny Estrada deal, is a fairly league average pitcher that has the ability to pitch a gem from time to time. However, despite his relative success last year, I am a bit skeptical at his abilities. He had a nice home/road split, which in this case means he wasn't very good in the hitter-friendly environs of BankOne Park, but was very decent (4.12 ERA) away from Arizona. I'll take a wait and see approach. He's 29, so it's not like he's going to get a lot better here quickly.

Wade Miller

I project Miller to win the 5th spot, but could easily be wrong, as Guzman and others are challenging. Miller in an interesting project. From 2002-2004, he averaged 184 innings, and compiled a solid 3.57 ERA for the Astros. However, in the three years since he has started merely 36 games, including 5 for the Cubs in late-season duty last year. Since his injury, his K/BB ratio has been atrocious, as he has walked 109 batters while striking out 158 in 199 innings. Last season, he walked 18 and struck out 20 for the Cubs, posting a pretty terrible 1.7 WHIP. While Miller was once a solid pitcher, he's 30 now, and coming off a serious injury. If he somehow returns to form, he will be a nice #5.

6th starter/Long Man/AAA Depth...Carlos Villanueva v. Angel Guzman

Villanueva is one of the pleasant surprises to come out of the Brewers farm system in the past few seasons. Acquired from the Giants for Wayne Franklin in 2003, Villanueva was a little-known rookie ball pitcher with average velocity and a slight frame. Whatever the Brewers brass saw in him, their faith was rewarded as Carlos steadily rose up the system, posting a 3.24 ERA in his minor league career. Villanueva was called up from AA last season after a string of terrible outings by higher touted prospects in the stead of Sheets and Tomo Ohka, who went down simultaneously with serious arm injuries. His 2006 starting debut came against Cincinnati in a very tough ballpark to pitch. He threw six scoreless innings. He ended his 2006 campaign by allowing two runs in 8.1 innings against the Cardinals, who at the time were still fighting for their playoff lives. In between, he strung together several strong outings that belied not only his tender age of 22. Carlos has a terrific changeup, great mound presence, and simply knows how to pitch.

Guzman is a very highly regarded prospect for the Cubs that has seen little major league success. His only stint in the show came in 2006, and like much of the rest of the Cubs staff, was summarily lit up like Clark Grizwald’s Christmas tree. He ended the season with a 7.39 ERA that was actually much worse (9.28 ERA) as a starter. He has solid stuff according to most accounts, but is also advancing in age for a prospect, as he turned 25 in December. His minor league numbers are beyond reproach, as he has compiled an ERA of 2.83 over 7 seasons in the Cubs minor league system. 20027 will be a put up or shut up kind of season for Guzman.

Middle Relief…Turnbow, Wise, Capellan, Shouse v. Eyre, Howry, Novoa, Wood, Ohman

The keys to the Brewers bullpen lay in the hands of Derrick Turnbow. The former Angel castoff took Milwaukee by storm in 2005, posting a terrific 1.74 ERA and franchise record-tying 39 saves. He started out ’06 in the same fashion, recording saves in the team’s first four games of the season to set a MLB record. On June 29, Turnbow had 23 saves and an ERA of 3.28 on the season. That’s when the wheels came off, and Turnbow came unglued. The rest of his season was a nightmare, and his problems appeared to be almost totally mental. He was still throwing 97, but couldn’t locate his breaking pitches, and the fastball then became predictable, and hittable. This spring, Turnbow has been terrific. If he can return to his pre-breakdown stage, the Brewers can play a lot of 7-inning games this season. If not, another reliable setup man will have to emerge. Matt Wise has been a steady presence in the bullpen for the last three years with his nasty changeup. Injuries limited him to 40 games last season, and his health will be a key to the ’06 pen. Big things are expected out of Jose Capellan, who was 2^nd on the club in appearances last season with 61. Another flamethrower, Capellan has lacked consistency, typical of young relievers. Some in the Brewers organization believe that he can become a dominant closer. Brian Shouse is the lefty specialist who came trotting in 59 times out of the pen last year, and held lefties to a .238 average.

The Cubs middle relief was a high point last season, as high dollar contracts doled out to the likes of Bobby Howry (3.17 ERA) and Scott Eyre (3.38) paid off nicely. Other bullpen stalwarts included Will Ohman (4.13 ERA, 78G) and Roberto Novoa (4.26 ERA, 66G), both of whom will be integral parts of the 2007 pen. Neil Cotts has had one decent season, 2005, but posted a WHIP of 1.63 last season, and a 5.17 ERA The X factor for Chicago could be former wunderkid Kerry Wood, who is currently down with an arm ailment. Shocking, I know. No one has ever questioned the stuff of Wood, whose two-pitch repertoire could play very well out of the pen. Should Wood be able to pitch 40-50 times this season, the middle relief could very well be a huge strength for the Cubs.

Closer…Cordero v. Dempster

Francisco “Coco” Cordero was acquired in the Carlos Lee deal, and basically single-handedly kept the Brewers season from completely going in the toilet. He was incredible upon entering the National League for the first time in an 8-year career, 7 of which were spent with the Rangers. He was unscored upon in his first 13.2 innings with the Crew, allowing just 7 hits in that timeframe. He finished 16-18 in save opportunities, and solidified the bullpen down the stretch. Cordero has absolutely nasty stuff, and was terrific, save April of 2006, for the Rangers, 86 games over the course of 2004-2005. Coco is one of the elite closers in the game, and should serve the Brewers well in 2007.

Dempster, a converted starter, had a nightmare 2006. He went 1-9 with a 4.80 ERA and nine saves. Because, save Wood, the Cubs don’t have another candidate for closer, Dempster will at least start the season with the job. He did the job in 2005, saving 33 games while compiling a 3.13 ERA.

Misc. Bullpen comments…

A bullpen’s best friend is a starting rotation that can consistently get deep into games. In this way, the Brewers figure to have a large edge, particularly as the season wears on, and the bullpens wear out. Although there are question marks in the middle of Milwaukee’s pen, if they can keep games in the hands of their top 4 relievers before Cordero, they should be fine.

Catcher…Estrada v. Barrett

In their only trade of the offseason, the Brewers sought to upgrade their catching position that has been a weak spot in the lineup since David Nilsson hit .309 with 21 home runs in 1999, making the All-Star team in the process. Estrada is a guy that is known more for his offense than his defense, but his arm should be adequate for what his bat can provide. He had a terrific 2004 for the Braves, hitting .314 with 9 HR before regressing into a .261 season in 2005, featuring just 4 long balls. He bounced back in 2006 with the Diamondbacks, hitting .302 with a career high 11 home runs. The issue with Estrada is that he doesn’t draw a lot of walks (just 13 in 2006). So when his batting average goes, so too goes his OBP down the tunes. However, at age 31, he shouldn’t be in a quick decline, and hopefully finish somewhere around that .300 mark. He certainly has people taking note of his hitting skills in Arizona, as he is still hovering around the .450 mark just less than two weeks before the season starts.

Barrett has been remarkably consistent in his three years with the Cubs, hitting exactly 16 home runs each season, and always batting between .275 and .307. While his walk rate is better than Estrada, he also doesn’t meet the 1 BB/10 AB standard preferred by OBP mavens. He’s the same age as Estrada roughly, and shouldn’t decline too much in 2007.

1^st Base…Fielder vs. Lee

A position of strength for both teams to be sure. Fielder had a terrific rookie campaign, shaking off an 0-11 start with 27 home runs, and a solid .830 OPS (on-base plus slugging, the preferred offensive metric for most statheads). Seeing that he’s only 23 years old, and 2006 was his first full season of action, there’s absolutely no reason to believe that he won’t exceed his 2006 numbers. His ceiling is virtually unlimited, and he could easily turn into one of the game’s top sluggers. He was very durable last year, playing 157 games, and was better defensively than most expected.

Derrek Lee’s absence from the Cubs lineup was a major contributing factor to their garbage 2006 season. He hit well when he was in the lineup, though not up to the silly numbers he put up in 2005. In that season, his OPS was an astounding 1.080, good for first in the majors. Last season, he regressed back to .842, which was more near his career norms. I certainly think Lee’s a good hitter, but it’s also just as clear when looking at his career stats that the 2005 season was an outlier, and should be treated as such. Still, most teams would kill to have him in their lineup every day, and his defense is simply stellar at the bag.

2^nd base…Weeks vs. DeRosa

Firmly entrenched as the Brewers leadoff hitter, this is a big year in the career of the talented Mr. Weeks. One of the highest touted prospects in baseball, Weeks tore through the minor leagues and made his debut in June of 2005. He got off to a solid start before injuring his thumb and sputtered down the stretch. 2006 was much of the same, as he missed the last 62 games with a wrist injury. It appears to be mostly healed, though in a troubling statement Weeks recently indicated that it still wasn’t 100%, merely good enough to play with. Weeks needs a healthy campaign for the Brewers to excel in 2007. He should steal well over 20 bases, hit at least 15 home runs, and hit around .280 with a decent OBP in 2007. Weeks still has the ceiling to be one of the top offensive 2^nd baseman in baseball, but ’07 is a year to prove his mettle. Defensively, he was a disaster for the first 50 games, and nothing less than stellar his final 45 or so. His range is terrific, but he sometimes struggles with routine plays.

Mark DeRosa was signed by the Cubs in the offseason after spending two seasons with the Texas Rangers. In the offensive haven that is the Ballpark at Arlington, Derosa put up a solid .813 OPS, but spent just 26 games at 2^nd base. A versatile player who has played all over the diamond in his career, he will stay at 2^nd for the Cubs. Before last season, DeRosa had never played more than 108 games in a season, never hit more than 8 home runs, or driven in more than 31 runs. He has no speed to speak of, and is average defensively. Still, if he can put up similar numbers to last season (unlikely since about 70% of his AB’s came against LHP, against whom he hit .342) the Cubs might have a really solid right side of the infield.

SS…Hardy v. Izturis

Much like Ricky Weeks, JJ Hardy has lots to prove as the Brewers SS. A 2^nd round pick with silky smooth defensive abilities, Hardy saw his 2006 campaign cut short with an ankle injury that felled him on May 16. He had a very slow start to his major league career, hitting just .180 in the first half of his rookie campaign. However, the Brewers’ patience was rewarded when JJ bounced back with a .308 batting average in the 2^nd half. He also has a surprising power stroke, hitting 14 homers in 159 career games. A realistic total year for Hardy would be around .270, 12-15 homers, and a solid year defensively. His plate discipline is acceptable, but as a potential #2 hitter in the lineup, more patience would be helpful.

Cesar Izturis was acquired in the Greg Maddox deal from the Dodgers last season, and there is no doubting his defensive acumen. The 2004 Gold Glove Award Winner sees has seen his share of problems as the plate, however. Besides a breakout year in 2004 when he was a National League All-Star and compiled a .711 .OPS, his highest season stands at just .624. That’s thanks mostly to his complete lack of plate discipline. Last season, he drew just 12 walks, and he’s never even came close to the 1BB/10 AB standard. It also doesn’t help that he doesn’t have any power at all, as Hardy (14) has more homers in 159 games that Izturis does (11) in over 650 games. The Cubs obviously feel that they are strong enough elsewhere offensively to overcome his deficiencies.

3B…Graffanino v. Ramirez

This is the one position in which the Brewers are obviously weak offensively. Their best laid plans went to waste once it became apparent that Corey Koskie might never play again after suffering a concussion last summer. At the very least, he’ll be out the first month or so, which left the Brewers with an interesting dilemma at 3^rd base. They gave stud prospect Ryan Braun a look, and his bat wowed, while his glove woahed, which is why he’ll be spending opening day 2007 in a Nashville Sounds uniform instead of facing Derek Lowe and the Dodgers. The 26^th best prospect in the game according to Baseball America, Braun will hone his defensive skills on a lesser stage, but look for him to be up by June 1 at the latest. A positive about him starting in AAA (where he has yet to have an AB) is that the Brewers will gain a whole additional year of Braun’s services, as long as he is in the minors until late April. He will now be Brewers property until 2012, which will take him up to right around his prime. It’s certainly looking ahead a long way, but getting to bide your time another year before having to pay big bucks could be crucial. In the meantime, the hot corner will be manned by Tony Graffanino and Craig Counsell. Hopefully heavy on Graffanino. Graffy was solid after being acquired by the Crew last season, putting up a .750 OPS. However, he simply doesn’t have any power, and that’s a big negative when you’re talking about a corner infield spot. The positives are that he will be more than adequate defensively, hits righties about the same as lefties, and will hopefully be in this spot for just a few months maximum. Counsell is a weak hitting middle infielder who has had pretty decent on-base skills. At this stage of his career, Counsell should start about 40 games, and be a defensive replacement if he plays other than that. I will be extremely disappointed if Yost chooses to do a straight platoon, as Counsell hit lefties about the same as righties, around .255 last season.

Ramirez, meanwhile, is one of the Cubs’ greatest assets. They resigned him to a long-term deal over the winter, a just reward for the guy that has averaged 35 home runs and 105 RBI over the past three seasons, and has played solid defense at the hot corner. His OPS has declined over the past two seasons, but at over .900 all three years, he’s still doing just fine. At 29, he’s still got plenty of good years left, and should be a staple in the Cubs lineup for years to come.

LF…Jenkins v. Murton

The Brewers figure to give Geoff Jeknins the lions share of AB’s in left this season, though there has been plenty of noise about a platoon with lefty-masher Kevin Mench. After playing in left all his career, Jenks moved to right for two years to accommodate Carlos Lee. He was one of the game’s premier defensive LF’s for a long time, and although it appeared his defense slipped in the past couple of years, he should be fine out there. The question is weather he can hit LHP. The answer last year at least was a definitive no. He hit a paltry .133 against them last year, well down from his career mark of .244. He continued to mash against righties, hitting .306 with 15 of his 17 home runs. His season overall last year was disappointing. He limped into September hitting just .250 with 10 home runs, and for the first time in his career, he was benched. When injuries to other outfielders forced him back into the lineup, he excelled, hitting .409 with 7 homers in the season’s final month of action. Jenkins is also in the final year of a contract, and has been killing the ball against all pitchers in spring training thus far. It will be very interesting to see if Yost indeed does use Mench often against LHP. For his career, Mench is hitting .303 against lefties with a very healthy .930 OPS. After coming over from the Rangers in the Carlos Lee deal, Mench, a butcher defensively, struggled mightily, hitting just .230 with one home run in 130 Milwaukee AB’s. Seeing as though he hit 51 home runs in the two years prior in Texas, it’s clear that Mench has some value, particularly against LHP. Strictly going by the numbers (Mench career .930 OPS v. LHP, Jenkins .892 career OPS v. RHP), a platoon makes a lot of sense. However, both of these players have expressed reservations about doing that, which could lead to decreased productivity. One of the biggest choices Yost will have is how to make up his lineup card against LHP. In the past, he has been hesitant to bench or platoon veterans, but all spring long the talk has been platoon. I guess we’ll find out, starting April 2.

Speaking of platoon, the Cubs might go that route as well, though I think it’s silly to take any AB’s away from Matt Murton to give to the aging Cliff Floyd. Murton last season put up solid numbers, hitting .292 with 13 home runs, showing decent plate discipline and putting put a .803 OPS. He hit righties almost as well as lefties (.782 vs. .870) and got stronger as the year went on (last three months over .300). He’s just 25 years old, is decent defensively, and is a player on the rise. Floyd, meanwhile, is 34 years old, bad in the outfield, and had just a .731 OPS last season with the Mets. He hit just .179 against lefties for a putrid .631 OPS, while he fashioned a decent .765 OPS against lefties. I don’t know why they signed him, unless it’s simply for depth on the bench. If that turns out to be the case, and Murton starts 130-plus games, then it’s not a bad signing. If they split the AB’s…not good.

CF…Hall v. Soriano.

Let’s compare some numbers, shall we?

Player A: .270 BA, .345 OBP, .898 OPS, 27 years old

Player B: .277 BA, .351 OBP, .911 OPS, 31 years old

If you had to guess, which player would have just signed a 4-year, 34 million dollar deal, and which player signed an 8-year, 136 million dollar contract, what would you say? Certainly most astute baseball followers would never say give the money to player B, especially when you consider that his normal position (LF) is a spot where you need those kind of numbers simply to stay afloat, right?

Well, if you haven’t figured it out by now, Player A is Bill Hall, and Player B is Alfonso Soriano. Soriano got the money, Bill Hall simply the production.

Hall is a pretty good story. A 6^th round pick out of high school, Hall climbed the ladder pretty quickly and reached the big leagues (well before he was ready) by age 22. He stuck for good in 2004, but he was still without a position when he entered camp in 2005. He bounced around the diamond, playing 66 games at SS, 59 at 3B, and 23 at 2B. He did this while making a huge jump in his offensive game. His OPS jumped from .650 to .837, and his home run total from 9 to 17. He made another quantum leap in 2006, jumping from .837 to .898, and from 17 to 35 home runs. In another positive development, Hall went from walking 39 times to 63 and seems to have made plate discipline a priority in his game. His defense might be interesting to start out with, but Hall’s athleticism makes him a solid candidate for a CF spot.

Soriano, meanwhile, is coming off a good season which saw him mash 46 home run for the Washington Nationals. Plate discipline is neither a strength nor a focus for Soriano, as despite being the only formidable hitter in the Nats lineup, he walked just 67 times in 647 AB’s. That total represented almost double his previous career high. So perhaps he’s getting the hang of it. Or, perhaps he was just pitched around so much with that bad lineup that he couldn’t help himself. He also strikes out a ton, including a career-high 160 times last season. He was among the league’s worst 2^nd basemen defensively with the Yankees and Rangers, and then made 11 errors in LF last season. He has not played a game in center field in his entire career. He has good speed, as evidenced by his 41 steals (he was also caught 17 times, too high of a number) last season, but it remains to be seen weather he can play a passable CF or not. And the contract is just ridiculous. I realize that Wrigley Field is a money-making machine, but do they honestly believe that this guy is going to be worth 17 million for more than a year or two? Studies have shown that the prime of a player’s career is between 27-30. He’s now 31. He will be 39 when his contract expires. He plays a position, or at least WILL play a position that makes offense a premium (remember that the Cubs tried to get a CF so he wouldn’t have to play out there). Overall, a silly deal, but there’s also no question that he represents a significant upgrade for the 2007 Cubs.

RF…Hart v. Jones

Corey Hart has flat-out hit where ever he has gone. In seven minor league seasons, he hit .299, compiled an .855 OPS, and hit 86 home runs. The former 11^th round draft pick was the MVP of the Southern League in 2003, and stole 131 bases. He was switched all around the diamond before settling in the outfield. Last season, Hart hit .283 with nine home runs in 82 games, positing an .798 OPS. I believe that given 500 AB’s, Hart could easily put up a .280, 20 HR, 80 RBI year, with an .830ish OPS and at least 15 steals. He’s got a lot of ability, is just 25, and should only get better as the years go by.

Jacque Jones had a pretty solid season last year, despite his bashing of the Wrigley Field faithful. Jones posted an .833 OPS last season, hitting 27 home runs on the season. He plays a very mediocre right field, making the Cubs defense in the outfield pretty terrible. He has very little plate discipline, striking out 116 times while walking only 35. Jones hit only .234 against lefties last season.

Bench…Counsell, Mench, Miller, Gross, Clark v. Floyd, Theriot, Blanco, Ward, Pagan

The Brewers’ depth in 2007 is one thing that sets them apart from years past. They have a solid backup infielder in Counsell, one of the game’s premier backup catchers in Damian Miller, and a stable of outfielders that, depth-wise, has to be among the best in baseball. Gabe Gross was solid off the bench in 2006, finishing with an OPS of .908 against righties. Brady Clark is a seasoned pro that can play any of the three outfield positions, and get on base at a decent clip. There still is a decent chance of a trade being made with one of the outfielders, most likely Mench, but they have the depth to lose of those guys.

The Cubs counter with Daryle Ward, who can’t play defense or hit lefties but is a solid option as a PH against righties. Ryan Theriot hit well in a brief stint in 2007, and could be given a long look at 2^nd base if DeRosa struggles. Henry Blanco is the definition of the good-field, bad-hit catcher, who actually didn’t do too badly at the plate last season, hitting .266 with seven homers. Angel Pagan is reserve outfielder that could make the team, while Ronny Cedeno has a chance at a backup infielders spot.

Summary…The NL Central is wide open this year. You could make a solid argument that any of four teams could win the division. Conversely, you could also come up with a laundry list of reasons that any one of those teams could end up under .500. I believe that this will be the Brewers best year since 1992…however, I’m just not quite ready to predict a division title, as people from Baseball America (Brewers 1^st, Cubs 5^th) and the Chicago Tribune (Phil Rogers) have done lately. I think the Cardinals will see their manager sober up and their pitching stabilize, and win the division with an 89-73 mark. I see the Brewers just a few games back at 85-77, while the Cubs languish around .500, and end up 80-82. It should be a fun summer of baseball.

The rich get richer ... or at least more Japanese

Ben Godar

Just when you start to think that revenue sharing might be moving The Game toward financial equity, something like this happens: the Red Sox pay $51 million just for the right to negotiate with one player.

For that sum, the BoSox will try to negotiate a deal with Japanese pitcher Daisuke Matsuzaka through America’s Sweetheart, Scott Boras. If no deal is reached, hell will freeze over and the Sox get their millions back. Otherwise, the cash goes to Matsuzaka’s Japanese team, the Seibu Lions.

It was disgusting to see several Yankee players with a higher annual salary than the entire Marlins team. But the Red Sox bid just for negotiations tops the total salary of five MLB teams. It is more than half the salary of the World Champ Cardinals.

But wait, it gets worse.

Published reports estimate it will cost Boston around $40 million more to sign Matsuzaka. That means Boston is likely to spend $91 million to sign one player. Only nine teams had a payroll of higher than $91 million last season.

And enough of this business of the Red Sox as the lovable underdogs, or the anti-Yankees. The Red Sox play Yankee ball, they’re just not as good at it. And when I say “not as good,” what I mean is “they don’t have as much money.” That’s what it comes down to, and that’s the problem with this whole damn system.

Mussina gives up pitching, becomes umpire

Dr. Uetz

Like many kids in America, I grew up playing baseball. I was lucky enough to play varsity ball in high school, spending my time catching and on the mound. I was not a great baseball player, but I always felt I had an understanding of the game and a calm demeanor that helped me overcome what my lack of tremendous talent.

When I was a freshman my dad shared a great nugget of wisdom with me that helped tremendously in my so-called career. The punchline to his story was a line from an old umpire who says, "Some pitches are strikes. Some pitches are balls. But they ain't nothing until I call 'em."

I thought of that this morning as I read the New York Times piece on the Yankees' loss last night. Here's the line that played catalyst:
"With two outs and no base runners in the sixth, Mussina gave up a double to the left-field corner by Brian Anderson, the No. 9 hitter. Mussina said he thought he had struck out Anderson before that, but (home plate ump) Miller disagreed."

Pull your head out of your ass, Mussina. You thought you had struck out Anderson before that? Really? Then why was he still in the batter's box? Why were you on the mound and not resting in the dugout? Why was the rest of your defense still on the field? You thought you had struck him out?

I get tired of reading crap like that. I'm not sure when it happened, but we sure have become a sorry bunch of excuse-makers. Personally I blame instant replay. While it's fun to watch Bartman try to catch that foul ball over and over again, it gives lazy people too many opportunities to find lame excuses for losing. "We so would have won if the ump had called him out at second. It was obvious on the replay." Yeah, well you might also have won if your team had managed more than 4 hits and 2 runs. Or in the case of the Bartman example, maybe you would have won if Gonzalez hadn't committed an error - something he over which he had total control?

Baseball, like life and everything else we know, is imperfect. Part of the beauty of the game is that unlike any other game you truly control your own destiny. Umps make mistakes. But so do pitchers, so do fielders, so do the batters. Mussina gives up a double in the sixth, but the Yankees still have nine remaining outs of their own to do some damage. And aren't they supposed to be the best team money can buy?

But I'm straying. The fact is a professional ballplayer should know better than to "think they struck out Anderson before that." When you're on the field, you are there to play the game. Leave it to the douchebags in the stands to argue with the umps. We all have a role to play, and the umpire's role is to determine ball or strike, safe or out, foul or fair. So shut up and pitch.

Bud Selig hates you

Dr. Uetz

Bud Selig doesn't give a shit about you. This may not shock you, but you should be reminded.

I called Bud at home last night to get his input on online fantasy leagues. MLB has been involved in a legal battle with online fantasy companies over the rights to player names and stats and recently suffered a defeated in the eighth circuit court. It's an obvious move by the greedheads to stuff their wallets. God forbid any of us have a little fun without them profiting from it.

So I took a chance and called Bud to see how he felt about the whole thing. He answered and I introduced myself as a "true fan of the game of baseball," and asked if he had just a minute to discuss this whole online fantasy baseball deal. He put down his copy of The Prince, let go a heavy sigh, and reluctantly agreed - it didn't hurt that I had introduced myself as the new PR Director for Rep. Bob Ney of Ohio.

But to the punch-line. Three minutes into our conversation Bud gave me the nugget of truth I had been looking for. At first he discussed MLB's intentions of simply wanting to provide fans with honest and reliable facts. "Who knows baseball better than the MLB?" he asked me. Good point. Not too many people.

"Certainly not the fans," I responded. "Those shitheads are just angling for a piece of the action. My 17 year old cousin Pete just won $150 in his fantasy league; in large part due to the great year Ortiz is having. Is he sending any of his earnings to Ortiz? Hell no. But he sure used his name and stats to win cash."

"Exactly!" Bud yelled. "I hate those fucking fans. They've ruined the game of baseball. This is about the bottom line, you understand. Without rules there is no game. And we write the rules."

I'm sure Judge Medler had the laws of our country and the Constitution in mind when she ruled against the MLB. But there are people out there, the true men of baseball, that she forgot in her decision. People like my friend Bud who rely on that revenue to put food on their table and a Mercedes in their garage. What would happen if we were all allowed to have fun without considering the cost of printing "Ortiz" or "Crede" or "Bonds" in our own Excel files? What about those starving players? Think about that. I for one agree with Bud. Fuck the fans.

The Worst Trade In Baseball

Dr. Uetz

I was in Colorado last weekend and happened to be lucky enough to have the time to grab a beer with my old friends Mike Cubbage and Louis Freeh. Both were there for the Carbondale Mountain Fair. I was there to clear my head and do some fly fishing. I needed time away from what was happening in the world.

It didn't take long for the chatter to turn to baseball - I steered it in that direction so I could gloat about the Mets, their 13 game lead, and their pending sweep of the Braves in Atlanta. It was good and it made Mike happy. But leave it to Louis to drag us down with trade talk.

The trade deadline is a strange and twisted border that we approach with a childish curiosity every year. And for several days after we pass it by, we spend countless hours discussing who won and who lost in the world of trades. It's good fodder. Because deadlines, like ultimatum, cause us to do some stupid shit. "You're going to the Michael Bolton concert with my mother and I or there will be no more sex for a month." So you go to the Bolton concert like a dumb ass. Or you send Tom Seaver to the fucking Reds. Ouch.

Baseball and life are full of odd deadlines that cause us to suspend our disbelief and move on with sketchy decisions. The 1:00 AM bar deadline has probably been the catalyst for some of history's worst decisions. (New Year's Eve is even worse, moving decisions up to 11:30 - could be responsible for John Wilkes Booth, Robin Leach, Chris Tucker, Dr. Phil, and Keanu Reeves.)

We will see what happens with the big trades from the '06 deadline. There's no way of telling. Maddux could love the west coast air and return to the form that made him one of the greatest pitchers of the last 20 years - it certainly it won't hurt to get out of Wrigley. Sean Casey, back in a pennant race, could revisit 2004 - he certainly has the skills. The Yankees have no farm system. What? I just wanted to say it, I don't care that it doesn't fit. Eat it. One thing is for sure, Texas will still be Texas with Carlos Lee; he's not a very good pitcher.

There are no guarantees in life; and if you find yourself on the verge of greatness you might make a plunge that would otherwise seem ludicrous. You might find yourself ordering the use of constitutionally questionable tactics on nonviolent protestors. Or you might trade Frank Robinson for Milt Pappas. (Frank Robinson, by the way, could be a great result of New Year's Eve. He was born on Aug. 31. Charlie Parker was born Aug. 29)

Lee Forces Brew Crew to Pull the Plug

Mike Popelka

Carlos Lee rejected a 4-year, $48 million contract offer from the Milwaukee Brewers today, all but forcing the hand of Brewers GM Doug Melvin. The Brewers sent Lee and their best outfield prospect Nelson Cruz to the Rangers for setup man Francisco Cordero, outfielders Laynce Nix and Kevin Mench, and 21 year old pitching prospect Julian Cordero.

Purely in terms of on the field production, I'm not sure how this move makes the Brewers much better. Kevin Mench is not a bad player, but Carlos Lee was the Brewers' best hitter. Lee can run, drive in runs, and hits with a decent average. Mench has power, but his game is not nearly as well rounded as Lee. Francisco Cordero will be inserted into the bullpen immediately upon arrival, but he's been a little shaky this season-- he's blown 9 saves in 15 chances this year and his ERA is dangerously close to five. Nix, once considered a top Rangers prospect, and Julian Cordero will be reporting to the minors.

Despite my initial knee-jerk reaction, I'll be slow to condemn Brewers management on this trade. I ridiculed the Brewers a few years ago when they traded Richie Sexson to the Diamondbacks for a small army of mediocre players, but I looked pretty stupid when that trade worked out well for Milwaukee. Nix and Mench are both fairly young, and it's possible that Francisco Cordero will regain his 2002-2005 form. He certainly can't be much worse than some of the relievers the Brewers are currently using. If Milwaukee had decided to hang on to Lee, all they would have gotten was a compensation draft pick from the team that signed him away instead of the three major-league ready players they received from Texas.

Any trade where a team is forced to deal a player strictly because of salary concerns is upsetting. Even more upsetting is the tired rhetoric superstar players use when the trade deadline comes around. All along Carlos Lee said he wanted to stay in Milwaukee, but when he turned down $12 million a year he effectively showed us he was full of crap.

Brewers fans, you shouldn't be upset at your team's management. They did what they could with a bad situation. Be upset with Carlos Lee giving you false hope, and be upset with the economic system of Major League Baseball for keeping you and the teams in Kansas City, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, and the like from fielding a championship team.

An Exciting Guide to the Hometown Hero Race!

Mike Popelka was unavailable to write today, so staff writer and understudy Lewis T. Buttersby, the hugest baseball fan ever, subbed for him just like Billy used to do for his dad in the hilarious Family Circus comics.

Less than two months to go, baseball fans! No, not the start of the playoffs (duh-- they start in October!), and not the trade deadline (only a few days left!), but the tallying of votes for your favorite franchise's Hometown Hero!

I know you're all very interested in how the voting will be going down, so I thought I'd break down some of the choices. I want everyone who's voting in this contest of monumental importance to really understand who they're voting for. Let's fill the ballot boxes and show Major League Baseball that we love our Hometown Heroes!

Here is my voting guide for Hometown Heroes of the NL Central division:

St. Louis: Lou Brock, Bob Gibson, Stan Musial, Albert Pujols, and Ozzie Smith

Don't vote for any of these guys. The best part of voting in the Hometown Heroes contest is that you can write in votes! I'll be writing in Jose Oquendo, because to me he really epitomizes St. Louis baseball. He even played all of the positions one time! If I lived in St. Louis (which I never have) I'd want him to represent my team as a Hometown Hero. He worked hard and it's high time he's recognized for it. Vote Oquendo!

Houston: Jeff Bagwell, Craig Biggio, Larry Dierker, Nolan Ryan, Jimmy Wynn

Okay this one's easy-- vote for Nolan Ryan. It's not rocket surgery, people; He's everybody's hero. Remember when he beat up Robin Ventura? Since Texans like to remind other people of how tough they are and how everything's big in Texas, Nolan Ryan is the sure pick. He may not be the biggest pitcher in history, but he's definitely the biggest in my heart!

Milwaukee: Cecil Cooper, Rollie Fingers, Jim Gantner, Paul Molitor, Robin Yount

This one's very tough. You should vote for either Gantner or write in for Gorman Thomas. Both of these guys have parts of Miller Park named for them. Either of these two guys could represent Milwaukee very well, but I feel that Thomas should have the edge. Gantner IS Brewer baseball-- he never led the league in anything (except for the number of times hit by a pitch), he never hit more than 11 home runs, and he was pretty mediocre, just like the Brewers. Thomas on the other hand has a restaurant at Miller Park, and he'll serve you food. Folks from Wisconsin like food (especially sausage!), so he is very popular. Oh, also he has a cool mustache and he's kind of fat like some other guys I know from Wisconsin. Go Gorman! I hope the fans pick you!

Chicago: Fergie Jenkins, Ron Santo, Ryne Sandberg, Ernie Banks, Billy Williams

Okay, the obvious choice is Ernie Banks. He played for the Cubs for a long, long time and never won anything. He was really good, too. I say, though, that we fans should go with someone who really and truly represents the futility of Cubs baseball. My vote goes for Bill Buckner. He was a Cub! One time he missed a grounder and his team lost the World Series because of it! Did you know that?! This to me represents what it's like being a Cub fan-- whenever things are looking pretty good somebody gets hurt or drops a ball or something. Based on this criteria, I guess Leon Durham would be a good vote too, but I feel that Buckner's mustache says "I am Chicago" more so than Leon's big glasses.

Cincinnati: Johnny Bench, Joe Morgan, Tony Perez, Pete Rose, Frank Robinson

A sportswriter named Bugs Baer once said "Cincinnati is nuts with baseball! They ought to call this place Cincinnutty!" I think you'd have to be "nutty" not to vote for Pete Rose! He's gritty, hard-nosed, and scrappy, and so is Cincinnati!

Pittsburgh: Roberto Clemente, Ralph Kiner, Bill Mazeroski, Honus Wagner, Willie Stargell

Wow, another tough one. Willie Stargell should probably be the choice here, because he helped the Pirates win a World Series (or should I call it the World Serious?!). Pittsburgh is a tough town, and I don't recall ever hearing a story about someone beating up Willie Stargell for wearing those dorky yellow uniforms with the pillbox cap. You have to be tough to not get beat up for that! I don't know that Stargell will win though, because people from Pittsburgh don't really like baseball. My guess is that Ben Roethlisberger will win.

Well, there it is-- the exciting guide to the exciting race to be a Hometown Hero! I hope you all find this guide useful. Remember people, we need to rock this vote so that our cities are represented well! Get the word out!

Editor's Note: Mike Popelka had absolutely nothing to do with this. He feels that the Hometown Hero contest is a waste of any true baseball fan's precious time. With any luck, there will be no further voting guides to this meaningless contest.

Hostile territory, Billy Bob Thornton and the St. Louis Cardinals

Ben Godar

As a Cardinals fan living in Los Angeles, I'm often forced into unfriendly territory to watch my team. Thankfully, Redbird Nation stretches from coast to coast, so there's always more than a few wearing my colors in Dodger Stadium.

We give each other a smile and a nod as we file past the throngs of mouth-breathing Dodger fans on our way to our seats. Anyone who's worn team apparel into enemy turf knows that it's rarely pleasant. I've had food hurled at me and been greeted more times with "Cardinals suck!" than I can count. Which isn't to say that I've had it so bad. A Giants fan was killed in the parking lot last year.

The point is, it's always a comfort to see another red t-shirt in the sea of beach ball swatting morons. But it's especially comforting when that face is Billy Bob Thornton.

Whenever a celebrity is at the stadium, their face usually winds up on the jumbo tron. Somewhere around the 6th inning of Friday night's game, Billy Bob Thornton appeared on the screen wearing a St. Louis Cardinals cap. The image drew a chorus of boos.

Now folks, that takes balls - and let me tell you why. Nobody, except perhaps our assbag president, is as succeptible to heckling as celebrities. When your typical Dodger fan sees me at the game, all he's got to work with is "Cardinals suck" and maybe "Pujols sucks." But that's only if he's really clever.

Can you imagine the torrent of abuse that could be unleashed on Billy Bob Thornton? He was married to Angelina Jolie and he was in The Alamo. There's about an hour of material right there.

Billy Bob Thornton doesn't need to wear his Cardinals hat to the game. He could just sit quietly and smile and wave when they put him on the big TV. But Billy Bob knows that wearing your team's colors is the RIGHT THING TO DO.

Now compare Billy Bob to Tom Hanks. Sports Weekly reported that Hanks, who calls himself an A's fan and sold concessions at the stadium as a kid, led a Baltimore crowd in a chant of "O-R-I-O-L-E-S" at a recent game ... while they were playing the A's. Nice work, Tom. I'm sure the crowd all loves you and the team all loves you and America all loves you. But where is your heart, sir?

I think we should all resolve to be more like Billy Bob Thornton.